Fantasy Sports Review just posted my 2nd article. In this one I talk about using a tier approach to drafts.
http://fantasy.nationalsportsreview.com/2008/08/07/manage-your-fantasy-buffet-the-tier-approach-to-draft-management/.
Thursday, August 7, 2008
Wednesday, August 6, 2008
Quarterback ratings
I have created my quarter back tiers that I will be using in my drafts along with the players' Average Draft Position (ADP). I will be adding the other positions in the near future and will update them in the weeks to come.
I used the website Fantasy Football Calculator to get the ADP info go to the following address:
http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp.php?teams=10
If a player did not have an ADP they were not being drafted in enough drafts to warrant a draft position.
Player ADP
Tier 1
Tom Brady - QB 6.4
Peyton Manning - QB 14.6
Tony Romo - QB 21.2
Tier 2
Drew Brees - QB 27.8
Carson Palmer - QB 38.3
Ben Roethlisberger - QB 47.1
Tier 3
Matt Hasselbeck - QB 65.7
Derek Anderson - QB 53.6
Donovan McNabb - QB 70.6
Jay Cutler - QB 88.9
David Garrard - QB 87
Marc Bulger - QB 81
Jason Campbell - QB 127.7
Eli Manning - QB 94
Philip Rivers - QB 106.8
Brett Farve-QB ------
Tier 4
Aaron Rodgers - QB 114.5
Jake Delhomme - QB 99.8
Matt Schaub - QB 103.2
Jon Kitna - QB 121.1
Vince Young - QB 126
Matt Leinart - QB 129.1
Trent Edwards - QB -----
Kurt Warner - QB 134.5
JaMarcus Russell - QB -----
Matt Ryan - QB -----
Jeff Garcia - QB -----
Here are the best values that I see:
Ben Rothlisberger at 47.1-If you can draft 2 RBs and a #1 WR and still get Ben in the 4th round...awesome.
Jason Campbell at 127.7-He really impressed me the at the HOF game. His play was very consistent with camp reports so i think he is the real deal.
Either one of the ARI QB-If you get your starter and want a back up, take one of these two late in drafts. At this time I think Leinart starts but as soon as he starts to struggle look for Warner.
I used the website Fantasy Football Calculator to get the ADP info go to the following address:
http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp.php?teams=10
If a player did not have an ADP they were not being drafted in enough drafts to warrant a draft position.
Player ADP
Tier 1
Tom Brady - QB 6.4
Peyton Manning - QB 14.6
Tony Romo - QB 21.2
Tier 2
Drew Brees - QB 27.8
Carson Palmer - QB 38.3
Ben Roethlisberger - QB 47.1
Tier 3
Matt Hasselbeck - QB 65.7
Derek Anderson - QB 53.6
Donovan McNabb - QB 70.6
Jay Cutler - QB 88.9
David Garrard - QB 87
Marc Bulger - QB 81
Jason Campbell - QB 127.7
Eli Manning - QB 94
Philip Rivers - QB 106.8
Brett Farve-QB ------
Tier 4
Aaron Rodgers - QB 114.5
Jake Delhomme - QB 99.8
Matt Schaub - QB 103.2
Jon Kitna - QB 121.1
Vince Young - QB 126
Matt Leinart - QB 129.1
Trent Edwards - QB -----
Kurt Warner - QB 134.5
JaMarcus Russell - QB -----
Matt Ryan - QB -----
Jeff Garcia - QB -----
Here are the best values that I see:
Ben Rothlisberger at 47.1-If you can draft 2 RBs and a #1 WR and still get Ben in the 4th round...awesome.
Jason Campbell at 127.7-He really impressed me the at the HOF game. His play was very consistent with camp reports so i think he is the real deal.
Either one of the ARI QB-If you get your starter and want a back up, take one of these two late in drafts. At this time I think Leinart starts but as soon as he starts to struggle look for Warner.
Up comming attractions
I am creating my first positional rankings and also making a week two camp report for each team. I just put the finishing touches on another article and hope to have it published soon. Check back periodically for updates to the blog and if you have any questions just email me at:
cjsemerad@gmail.com
cjsemerad@gmail.com
Saturday, August 2, 2008
The Ticker 8/02
Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall Pit- Fast Willie seems resign to the fact that he will be splitting time at RB with Rashard Mendenhall. At the very minimum it appears that Mendenhall will be the short yardage back. Thus far I have heard very little in regards to how either back is performing in camp. We may need to wait until after a couple of preseason games before we know just how man carries we can expect from each back.
Laurence Maroney NE- If the Pats would ever balance their offense LM could be an elite back, however Coach Bill is unlikely to do this so he will continue to tease us. Word out of camp is that he has had a good first week of camp. If you have an established #1 RB and he gets to you late in the 2nd round he should be considered; just expected have your heart broken throughout the season.
Gaints RBBC- All three RBs have a lot of potential and will see significant time this year. Jacobs is the most valuable right now. He will get the bulk of the carries and will be the short yardage back. At this time I think Jacobs's handcuff will be Ward. In fact if you are in a ppr league Ward has value even in part time duty. Jacobs is an injury risk so you need to get Ward as a security blanket.
Williams and Brown Mia- Don't get fooled by the Ricky hype coming out of the Dolphins camp. While the Rasta RB has had a strong Camp thus far Ronnie Brown is still the man. Brown's value is based more on how he recovers from ACL surgery. He is just now starting to get some full pad reps in so we won't see him much in pre-season. Right now I consider Brown a considerable value. Browns is the 19th back taken off the boards, getting selected in the late 3rd early 4th rounds.
Mike Bell Hou- Keep your eyes on Mike bell who was recently signed by the Texans. The rbs ahead of him (Green and Brown) are oft injured and Bell is going into a system that he is not only familiar with but has been successful in.
Chris Johnson and Big Lendale Ten- LenDale White is still the back you want from the Titian's. Reports are that he is in better shape and with an improved offense and ball control mentality, Lendale has better value than most people think; a soilid #2 rb that can be had in the 4/5th round. He is an injury risk so handcuff him with Rookie Chris Johnson. Johnson has had a good start to camp and will see some carries through out the year.
Seahawk Rbs- The seahags are looking to throw to the RBs more this year which increases Julius Jones value a little.
Frank Gore SF- With Mad Mike directing the offence look for Gore to improve on his 08 numbers. However it will be in the passing game, not the running game, that FG see his number rise. Martz appears to be building the offense around Gore which must mean he sees something he likes.
Cadillac Williams TB- He will most likely not take part in team workouts until the regular season starts, which will give Earnest Graham plenty of time to solidify himself as the starter.
Kevin Smith Det-A nice little sleeper going very deep in draft (around 6/7 round) appears to be the #1 RB in Det. Although the lions are looking to use the run more often, their effective passing game won't let teams stack the line. Smith is also a decent receiver so i like him to get a lot more touches than one would think...besides Tatum Bell is the next best thing the lions have.
Ryan Torain Den- If you have the stomach to draft a Bronco RB, keep Torain on your radar. He has been getting some reps with the first team...and he plays for Mike Shanahan.
McFadden Oak- Although it appears that DM will be in a time share with Justin Fargas, I like McFadden to get a bulk of the goal line carries and be used a lot on 3rd down. Being draft in the 3/4 round makes McFadden a nice value at that pick.
Laurence Maroney NE- If the Pats would ever balance their offense LM could be an elite back, however Coach Bill is unlikely to do this so he will continue to tease us. Word out of camp is that he has had a good first week of camp. If you have an established #1 RB and he gets to you late in the 2nd round he should be considered; just expected have your heart broken throughout the season.
Gaints RBBC- All three RBs have a lot of potential and will see significant time this year. Jacobs is the most valuable right now. He will get the bulk of the carries and will be the short yardage back. At this time I think Jacobs's handcuff will be Ward. In fact if you are in a ppr league Ward has value even in part time duty. Jacobs is an injury risk so you need to get Ward as a security blanket.
Williams and Brown Mia- Don't get fooled by the Ricky hype coming out of the Dolphins camp. While the Rasta RB has had a strong Camp thus far Ronnie Brown is still the man. Brown's value is based more on how he recovers from ACL surgery. He is just now starting to get some full pad reps in so we won't see him much in pre-season. Right now I consider Brown a considerable value. Browns is the 19th back taken off the boards, getting selected in the late 3rd early 4th rounds.
Mike Bell Hou- Keep your eyes on Mike bell who was recently signed by the Texans. The rbs ahead of him (Green and Brown) are oft injured and Bell is going into a system that he is not only familiar with but has been successful in.
Chris Johnson and Big Lendale Ten- LenDale White is still the back you want from the Titian's. Reports are that he is in better shape and with an improved offense and ball control mentality, Lendale has better value than most people think; a soilid #2 rb that can be had in the 4/5th round. He is an injury risk so handcuff him with Rookie Chris Johnson. Johnson has had a good start to camp and will see some carries through out the year.
Seahawk Rbs- The seahags are looking to throw to the RBs more this year which increases Julius Jones value a little.
Frank Gore SF- With Mad Mike directing the offence look for Gore to improve on his 08 numbers. However it will be in the passing game, not the running game, that FG see his number rise. Martz appears to be building the offense around Gore which must mean he sees something he likes.
Cadillac Williams TB- He will most likely not take part in team workouts until the regular season starts, which will give Earnest Graham plenty of time to solidify himself as the starter.
Kevin Smith Det-A nice little sleeper going very deep in draft (around 6/7 round) appears to be the #1 RB in Det. Although the lions are looking to use the run more often, their effective passing game won't let teams stack the line. Smith is also a decent receiver so i like him to get a lot more touches than one would think...besides Tatum Bell is the next best thing the lions have.
Ryan Torain Den- If you have the stomach to draft a Bronco RB, keep Torain on your radar. He has been getting some reps with the first team...and he plays for Mike Shanahan.
McFadden Oak- Although it appears that DM will be in a time share with Justin Fargas, I like McFadden to get a bulk of the goal line carries and be used a lot on 3rd down. Being draft in the 3/4 round makes McFadden a nice value at that pick.
Friday, August 1, 2008
The Ticker 8/01
Periodically I will be posting my thoughts on news coming off various wires, blogs and other sources around the league. I will start with WR news and will continue with RB and QB news. We are still very early in training camp so there are a lot of battles going on right now. As we get farther along players will begin to distinguish themselves from their peers and will become safer bets.
WR
Gaffney NE-Checkout this article out of Patriots camp: http://www.eagletribune.com/pusports/local_story_214013006.html
Gaffney seems to be the man that will line up opposite of moss which means he has late round value, especially with Welker fighting off some injuries.
Welker NE- In related news Welker appears to be fighting off an unspecified injury. Gaffney and Chad Jackson have been the beneficiaries of the extra snaps.
Ocho Cinco Cin-Looks to be back at practice on Monday. How his ankle responds will go a long way to how high he should be drafted. Being that he is fighting for mo' money he is motivated. He is currently being drafted 11th off the boards which is about right.
Jason Avant and De Sean Jackson Phi-If you are looking for a deep ...I mean very deep sleeper Avant is earning high praise at Eagles camp so far. With an unspectacular group of WR he has a chance to move up.
A safer bet might be Jackson, especially in keeper leagues. He is slated to be the return man this year but has down field potential. If McNabb can stay healthy he may look for Jackson deep this year.
Roy Williams Det-Doesn't appear RW has missed Martz to much. This is a guy who wants the ball every play and works hard . By the way also his contract year, so he is motivated. right now the 11th wr taken off the boards could be a steal for someone in the mid rounds.
Denver WRs- The Bronco's are a running team first, however they have a lot of talent at WR. Newbie Darrel Jackson looks to be starting opposite Brandon Marshall, but was shaky last year. Guys like Keary Colbert, Eddie Royal and veteran slot receiver Brandon Stokley have been looking good so far in camp and are looking to move up if Jackson falters or gets injured.
Brandon Marshall- With suspension hanging over his head BM's draft position continues to fall. If you find your self in the 4th round or later looking for WR help and he is still on the board he is worth the risk. BM was a fiend late in the season and I think this will continue.
Dolphin WR- If you are truly desperate and in a 16 team league a couple of Miami WR have looked impressive. Ted Ginn is the bigger of the two names. He continues to improve and is slated to be the the #1 wr. Reports are showing that the most impressive WR in Dolphin's camp has been Derek Hagam. Currently the #3 behind Ernest Wilford, Hagan is big, fast and in his 3rd year. And because Ernest Wilford is Ernest Wilford, Hagan will more than likely be a starter some time during the year. Now only if he had a QB to throw to him.
Troy Williamson and Mike Walker Jax- With Reggie Williams and Jerry Porter on the shelf for the rest of training camp, two Jax receivers have been stepping up lately. Williamson has been a sexy sleeper for a couple of years, but his inconsistency catching the ball has kept him from meeting his potential. Word out of Jag's camp is that TW has looked much better and is the #2 WR. He has the speed and size to be a top receiver in the league. Mike Walker is more along the lines of a Jerry Porter. Reports indicate he is catching everything and could be a red zone target if Williams and/or Porter remained injured.
Roddy White Atl- Thus far has had a great camp and buoyed by a solid season last year he makes a nice mid to late round selection and a solid #2 wr.
Micheal Clayton TB- Right now just a guy to keep your eyes on but is having a very good camp so far.
Andre Johnson Hou- He is healing nicely form knee surgery in May and is a legit#1 WR. No worries here.
Marvin Harrison Ind- Ditto for MH. Appears he is headed back to being one of the elites. Currently the #19 wr off the boards is a great buy right now.
WR
Gaffney NE-Checkout this article out of Patriots camp: http://www.eagletribune.com/pusports/local_story_214013006.html
Gaffney seems to be the man that will line up opposite of moss which means he has late round value, especially with Welker fighting off some injuries.
Welker NE- In related news Welker appears to be fighting off an unspecified injury. Gaffney and Chad Jackson have been the beneficiaries of the extra snaps.
Ocho Cinco Cin-Looks to be back at practice on Monday. How his ankle responds will go a long way to how high he should be drafted. Being that he is fighting for mo' money he is motivated. He is currently being drafted 11th off the boards which is about right.
Jason Avant and De Sean Jackson Phi-If you are looking for a deep ...I mean very deep sleeper Avant is earning high praise at Eagles camp so far. With an unspectacular group of WR he has a chance to move up.
A safer bet might be Jackson, especially in keeper leagues. He is slated to be the return man this year but has down field potential. If McNabb can stay healthy he may look for Jackson deep this year.
Roy Williams Det-Doesn't appear RW has missed Martz to much. This is a guy who wants the ball every play and works hard . By the way also his contract year, so he is motivated. right now the 11th wr taken off the boards could be a steal for someone in the mid rounds.
Denver WRs- The Bronco's are a running team first, however they have a lot of talent at WR. Newbie Darrel Jackson looks to be starting opposite Brandon Marshall, but was shaky last year. Guys like Keary Colbert, Eddie Royal and veteran slot receiver Brandon Stokley have been looking good so far in camp and are looking to move up if Jackson falters or gets injured.
Brandon Marshall- With suspension hanging over his head BM's draft position continues to fall. If you find your self in the 4th round or later looking for WR help and he is still on the board he is worth the risk. BM was a fiend late in the season and I think this will continue.
Dolphin WR- If you are truly desperate and in a 16 team league a couple of Miami WR have looked impressive. Ted Ginn is the bigger of the two names. He continues to improve and is slated to be the the #1 wr. Reports are showing that the most impressive WR in Dolphin's camp has been Derek Hagam. Currently the #3 behind Ernest Wilford, Hagan is big, fast and in his 3rd year. And because Ernest Wilford is Ernest Wilford, Hagan will more than likely be a starter some time during the year. Now only if he had a QB to throw to him.
Troy Williamson and Mike Walker Jax- With Reggie Williams and Jerry Porter on the shelf for the rest of training camp, two Jax receivers have been stepping up lately. Williamson has been a sexy sleeper for a couple of years, but his inconsistency catching the ball has kept him from meeting his potential. Word out of Jag's camp is that TW has looked much better and is the #2 WR. He has the speed and size to be a top receiver in the league. Mike Walker is more along the lines of a Jerry Porter. Reports indicate he is catching everything and could be a red zone target if Williams and/or Porter remained injured.
Roddy White Atl- Thus far has had a great camp and buoyed by a solid season last year he makes a nice mid to late round selection and a solid #2 wr.
Micheal Clayton TB- Right now just a guy to keep your eyes on but is having a very good camp so far.
Andre Johnson Hou- He is healing nicely form knee surgery in May and is a legit#1 WR. No worries here.
Marvin Harrison Ind- Ditto for MH. Appears he is headed back to being one of the elites. Currently the #19 wr off the boards is a great buy right now.
Thursday, July 31, 2008
My Fair Brady article.
As promised my article was recently posted on the website National Sports Review. Here is a link to the article: http://fantasy.nationalsportsreview.com/2008/07/28/my-fair-brady-draft-maker-or-draft-breaker/
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
Grand Opening Blog!
Yo fellow fantasy football freaks! I would like to welcome all of you to my Grand Opening Blog. A few days ago I submitted my first ffb article and low and behold it got picked up. They ask for a bio with any websites or blogs i wanted to promote and well ...I decided I needed a blog. It sounded like a big boy thing to do, so I did it.
Once my article gets posted I will put a hot link in so you guys can read it and give me your thoughts.
In all seriousness, in my bio I proclaimed my self as a non-expert...it is self effacing but true. However i love the game and more importantly to you i love discussing it. If you have any questions/comments for me, write me at cjsemerad@gmail.com
As training camps keep moving along I will be posting a lot more of my thoughts on player rankings, sleepers, bust or anything you would like for me to discuss.
Thanks,
Justin
Once my article gets posted I will put a hot link in so you guys can read it and give me your thoughts.
In all seriousness, in my bio I proclaimed my self as a non-expert...it is self effacing but true. However i love the game and more importantly to you i love discussing it. If you have any questions/comments for me, write me at cjsemerad@gmail.com
As training camps keep moving along I will be posting a lot more of my thoughts on player rankings, sleepers, bust or anything you would like for me to discuss.
Thanks,
Justin
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